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Asia shares open gingerly on U.S. inflation, earnings season

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Early Monday, S&P 500 futures ESc1 were down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures NQc1 off 0.3%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS hovered around flat. South Korea .KS11 eased 0.3%, but Japan's Nikkei .N225 added 1.5%.

SYDNEY: Asian shares started cautiously on Monday as investors braced for a U.S. inflation report that could force another super-sized hike in interest rates, and the start of an earnings season where profits could be under pressure.

An upbeat U.S. June payrolls report already has the market wagering heavily on a hike of 75 basis points from the Federal Reserve this month, and sending bond yields higher. FEDWATCH

Underlining the global nature of the inflation problem, central banks in Canada and New Zealand are expected to tighten further this week.

While Wall Street did eke out some gains last week the market mood will be tested by earnings from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo the day after.

"Consensus expects 2Q S&P 500 EPS growth of just +6% year/year," says Goldman Sachs analyst David J. Kostin. "While firms will likely clear this low bar, we expect cautious commentary will prompt cuts to forward estimates."

If the economy does manage to dodge recession, Kostin sees EPS growth of 8% in 2022 and 6% in 2023, with the S&P 500 index rising to 4300. In a moderate recession, EPS could fall by 11%.

Early Monday, S&P 500 futures ESc1 were down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures NQc1 off 0.3%.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS hovered around flat. South Korea .KS11 eased 0.3%, but Japan's Nikkei .N225 added 1.5%.

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Japan's conservative coalition government was projected to have increased its majority in upper house elections on Sunday, two days after the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Read full story

A major hurdle will be Wednesday's U.S. consumer price report where markets see headline inflation accelerating further to 8.8%, but a slight slowdown in the core measure to 5.8%.

An early reading on consumer inflation expectations this week will also have the close attention of the Fed.

"Unexpected weakness in these releases will be required to dislodge expectations for a 75bps July 27 Fed rate rise, which lifted from about 71bps to 74bps post the payrolls report," said Ray Attrill head of FX strategy at NAB.

PARITY PARTY

Likewise, Treasury yields climbed around 10 basis points on the jobs report and the 10-year US10YT=RR stood at 3.08% on Monday up from a recent low of 2.746%.

A hawkish Fed combined with fears of recession, particularly in Europe, has kept the dollar up at 20-year highs against a basket of competitors =USD. The dollar was firm at 136.30 yen JPY=EBS, just off its recent peak of 137.00.

The euro continued to struggle at $1.0164 EUR=, having shed 2.4% last week to hit a two-decade low and major retracement target at $1.0172.

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